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Paul is a British-hatched common octopus, species Octopus vulgaris. The eight-armed soothsayer which lives in a commercial entertainment aquarium in Oberhausen, Germany. The animal was used as an oracle in an attempt to predict the results of major German international football matches.He has become one of the stars of the tournament and put the TV pundits to shame, thanks to an amazing run of correct World Cup predictions.
Paul started using his nine brains to "predict" the outcome of soccer games two years ago during the European Championships. There's no crystal ball required for Paul's predictive powers. Rather each time, his handlers dip two, clear square boxes containing a mussel each into Paul's aquarium. The boxes are decorated with the either the German flag or that of the opposition. Whichever box Paul opens is deemed the likely winner.
Paul's 100% accurate predictions for the 2010 World Cup have gained him worldwide status as
a celebrity animal. Based on the Binomial Distribution in probability theory, if the prediction exercise was not biased, the probability of at least 11 correct prediction in 12
matches would be approximately 0.3%. However, the octopus chose Germany as the winning team 9 out of 12 times, which is significantly different from a 50% chance of picking each box. If the exercise was biased in favor of picking Germany, then the octopus would have a better chance at success since Germany was the favorite in each one of these matches.
Paul was hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, Dorset, England. This octopus now lives in a tank in Sea Life Oberhausen, a commercial attraction in the town of Oberhausen, Germany. Sea Life Oberhausen is one of a chain of sealife-themed attractions
that is owned by Merlin Entertainments, a company that also owns amusement parks and midway attractions.
The name of the octopus was taken from the title of a poem by the German children's writer
Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus.[10] According to statements from Sea Life's entertainment director, Daniel Fey, the octopus demonstrated his intelligence early in life:
"There was something about the way he looked at our visitors when they came close to the
tank. It was so unusual, so we tried to find out what his special talents were."
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